Determining quarantine length and testing frequency for international border opening during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the closure or partial closure of international borders in almost all countries. Here, we investigate the efficacy of imported case detection considering quarantine length and different testing measures for travellers on arrival. METHODS: We examine eight broad border control strategies from utilizing quarantine alone, pre-testing, entry and exit testing, and testing during quarantine. In comparing the efficacy of these strategies, we calculate the probability of detecting travellers who have been infected up to 2 weeks pre-departure according to their estimated incubation and infectious period. We estimate the number of undetected infected travellers permitted entry for these strategies across a prevalence range of 0.1-2% per million travellers. RESULTS: At 14-day quarantine, on average 2.2% (range: 0.5-8.2%) of imported infections are missed across the strategies, leading to 22 (5-82) imported cases at 0.1% prevalence per million travellers, increasing up to 430 (106-1641) at 2%. The strategy utilizing exit testing results in 3.9% (3.1-4.9%) of imported cases being missed at 7-day quarantine, down to 0.4% (0.3-0.7%) at 21-day quarantine, and the introduction of daily testing, as the most risk averse strategy, reduces the proportion further to 2.5-4.2% at day 7 and 0.1-0.2% at day 21 dependent on the tests used. Rapid antigen testing every 3 days in quarantine leads to 3% being missed at 7 days and 0.7% at 14 days, which is comparable to PCR testing with a 24-hour turnaround. CONCLUSIONS: Mandatory testing, at a minimal of pre-testing and on arrival, is strongly recommended where the length of quarantining should then be determined by the destination country's level of risk averseness, pandemic preparedness and origin of travellers. Repeated testing during quarantining should also be utilized to mitigate case importation risk and reduce the quarantining duration required.

Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: By estimating N95 respirator demand based on simulated epidemics, we aim to assist planning efforts requiring estimations of respirator demand for the healthcare system to continue operating safely in the coming months. METHODS: We assess respiratory needs over the course of mild, moderate and severe epidemic scenarios within Singapore as a case study using a transmission dynamic model. The number of respirators required within the respiratory isolation wards and intensive care units was estimated over the course of the epidemic. We also considered single-use, extended-use and prolonged-use strategies for N95 respirators for use by healthcare workers treating suspected but negative (misclassified) or confirmed COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: Depending on the confirmed to misclassified case ratio, from 1:0 to 1:10, a range of 117.1 million to 1.1 billion masks are required for single-use. This decreases to 71.6-784.4 million for extended-use and 12.8-148.2 million for prolonged-use, representing a 31.8-38.9% and 86.5-89.1% reduction, respectively. CONCLUSION: An extended-use policy should be considered when short-term supply chains are strained but planning measures are in place to ensure long-term availability. With severe shortage expectations from a severe epidemic, as some European countries have experienced, prolonged use is necessary to prolong supply.

Population anxiety and positive behaviour change during the COVID-19 epidemic: Cross-sectional surveys in Singapore, China and Italy.

BACKGROUND: On 31 December 2019, an epidemic of pneumonia of unknown aetiology was first reported in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, People's Republic of China. A rapidly progressing epidemic of COVID-19 ensued within China, with multiple exportations to other countries. We aimed to measure perceptions and responses towards COVID-19 in three countries to understand how population-level anxiety can be mitigated in the early phases of a pandemic. METHODS: Between February and March 2020, we conducted online surveys in Singapore, China and Italy with a total of 4505 respondents to measure respondents' knowledge, perceptions, anxiety and behaviours towards the COVID-19 epidemic, and identified factors associated with lower anxiety and more positive behavioural responses. RESULTS: Respondents reported high awareness of COVID-19 and its accompanying symptoms, comparable information-seeking habits and similarly high levels of information sufficiency, adherence to and acceptance of public health control measures. Higher self-efficacy was associated with lower anxiety levels in all three countries, while willingness to comply with restrictive measures and greater information sufficiency were associated with more positive behavioural changes to reduce spread of infection. CONCLUSION: Population-level anxiety and behavioural responses to an outbreak can be influenced by information provided. This should be used to inform future outbreak preparedness plans, taking into account the importance of increasing population-level self-efficacy and information sufficiency to reduce anxiety and promote positive behavioural changes.